COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Gold hit its highest in almost seven weeks on Monday, boosted by a struggling dollar and U.S. economic data that cast doubt on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again this year.

Silver gained 0.8 percent to $16.79 an ounce, after rising to $16.88, the highest since June 29.

Oil prices rose to two-month highs on Monday, ending the strongest month of the year for crude futures, boosted in part by expectations of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's oil sector and as supply concerns have waned in recent weeks. During the trading day, chatter centered around potential U.S. Treasury sanctions targeting the country's oil sector in response to Venezuela's Sunday election which Washington denounced as a "sham."

We expect Natural gas prices to trade sideways on the back of short covering after sharp drop in prices. 

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -28420-28470 Silver -38300-38170 

Energy - Opens on negative Note Crude Oil -3150-3155 Natural Gas -191-191.20 

Base Metals - Opens on negative Note Copper -407-406 Nickel -645-646 Lead -146-147 Zinc - 179-178.70 Aluminium -122.90-123

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Precious metals are likely to open lower as the dollar rebounded slightly after the recent selloff. US core durable goods orders rose by 6.5% in June, reflecting a sharp jump in orders for transportation equipment. Initial jobless claims however rose by more than expected to 244,000 missing forecasts of a 7,000 decline. Gold prices jumped this week after the Fed kept rates unchanged and maintained that the balance sheet unwinding may start relatively soon. Inflation concerns were however highlighted more prominently compared to the June statement and the Fed expects inflation to remain somewhat below 2% in near term. This implies that a rate hike may not happen until December. Consequently, US rate hike expectations for December slipped to 46%. Meanwhile, ETF holdings of gold continue to decline with SPDR holdings down 0.45% to 791.88 tonnes. Overall, bias remains positive for Gold and silver but range bound trade is expected ahead of US GDP.

Base metals consolidated in a range after volatility seen during the week. Copper has been sideways with little movement in currency markets. Glencore cut its 2017 output targets after changes in what it extracts at some of its mines, rainfall and maintenance hit production in the first half of the year. China's Ministry of Commerce called for a global approach to tackling problems in the aluminium market as it noted the findings of a probe by the United States into the sector.

Crude oil prices are likely to extend gains and the trend remains positive this week after the EIA reported sharp drawdown in US inventories. Natural gas rose as inventories rose less than expected by 17 bcf. Earlier, data showed that US oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels while gasoline and distillate stocks also drew.   

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on positive Note Gold -28560-28600 Silver -38400-38500 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -3128-3130 Natural Gas -188-188.40 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -409-409.50 Nickel -639.50-640 Lead -148.20-147.90 Zinc - 180.40-180.20 Aluminium -123.40-123.50

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Precious metals are trading higher on COMEX today. We expect prices to trade higher for the day, with the dollar hovering close to 13-month lows hit in the previous session after the U.S. Federal Reserve's statement following its two-day policy meeting.

Industrial metals are trading mix on International bourses today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day, supported by a weaker dollar and the potential for tighter scrap supply into China.

Crude oil is trading lower on NYMEX today. We believe prices to trade range bound for the day, buoyed by hopes that a steeper-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories will reduce global oversupply

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -28370-28390 Silver -37995-38010 

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil -3110-3120 Natural Gas -190.50-190.80 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -407-411 Nickel -642.50-643 Lead -148.80-149 Zinc - 183.60-183.75 Aluminium -125-125.20

COMMODITY MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Precious metals are likely to open lower as investors await the outcome of the Fed meeting today. It is unlikely that the statement will offer anything new but subtle hints will be closely watched. The Fed may maintain that it remains on course and probably hint concern about low inflation readings in the recent months. The dollar continues to trade near 13 month low which has kept precious metals buoyant in recent days. Political uncertainty in US has also underpinned the dollar and a close eye will be on Trump Jr. as he appears before the senate committee today. Meanwhile, ETF holdings of gold continue to decline with SPDR holdings down 1.1% to 800.4 tonnes yesterday. From a trading perspective, gold and silver are likely to trade in a range today with possibility of a correction ahead of the FOMC statement.  

Base metals continued their winning streak as most traded at monthly highs and some inched to yearly highs. Copper prices hit their highest in more than two years, boosted by signs of robust demand from China, tight supplies, a weak dollar and a break of key technical levels. Talk of a Chinese ban on scrap containing copper based on the recent notification may have helped trigger copper's rally. Dollar fell to a 13-month low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. consumer confidence jumped to a near 16-year high in July amid optimism over the labour market while house prices maintained their upward trend in May. Philippines President Duterte wants all mineral resources extracted in the country to be processed domestically and, if possible, to stop exporting such commodities. The Philippines is the world's top supplier of nickel ore, for which China is the biggest market, which triggered rally in Nickel.

Crude oil prices are likely to extend gains after the API reported sharp drawdown in US inventories last week. Data showed that US oil inventories fell by 10.2 million barrels while gasoline inventories increased and distillate stocks drew. Sentiment has also turned positive after the OPEC meeting this week boosted hopes of better compliance in the coming months. Members also hinted about extending cuts beyond March 2018 if required. The meeting suggested that exports may also be monitored and Saudi pledged to cut exports further in August. Saudi will export 6.6 mbpd in August, down from 6.9 mbpd in May.  

Commodity Opening Bell

Bullion - Opens on positive Note Gold -28535-28540 Silver -38090-38150 

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil -3005-3010 Natural Gas -187.70-188 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -393-394 Nickel -627-630 Lead -144.50-145 Zinc - 180-180.50 Aluminium -122.40-122.45

COMMODITY  FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Precious metals are likely to open flat as investors await the Fed meeting that starts today. The outcome of the meeting is due tomorrow but it is unlikely that the statement will offer anything new. The Fed may maintain that it remains on course and probably hint concern about low inflation readings in the recent months. The dollar is trading near a 13 month low which has kept precious metals buoyant in recent days. Political uncertainty in US has also underpinned the dollar after senior adviser Jared Kushner confirmed four contacts with Russians during Trump’s presidential campaign and the transition. Meanwhile, the Russian central bank added 9.3 tonnes of gold to its reserves in June, taking its total holdings to 1,717 tonnes. From a trading perspective, gold and silver are likely to maintain an upward bias in the near term as long as the dollar stays weak.

Base metals continue to add gains, with some surging to monthly highs today. Copper held overnight gains even as the U.S. dollar made only a modest recovery from its lowest point in more than a year. Copper miner Antofagasta has signed a wage deal with workers at its Zaldivar deposit in Chile, averting threatened labor action. IMF kept its growth forecasts for the world economy unchanged for this year and next, although it revised up growth expectations for the euro zone and China. Refined copper imports surged sequentially to 271kt in June, though the YoY comparison still shows a 11% decline Refined lead imports into China have shot up this year. In the previous two years, imports were at around 1kt per year – totally insignificant. This year they're running at an annualised rate of about 100kt, which is way up on past years but still represents less than 2% of Chinese refined consumption. 

Crude oil prices are likely to extend gains after the OPEC meeting yesterday boosted hopes of better compliance in the coming months. Members also hinted about extending cuts beyond March 2018 if required.   

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on mixed Note Gold -28540-28550 Silver -38150-38120 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -2965-2966 Natural Gas -189.50-191 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -389.20-389.30 Nickel -617-618 Lead -144-144.10 Zinc - 178.70-178.90 Aluminium -122.75-122.65

FUNDAMENTAL NEWS UPDATE

Last week, spot gold prices rose by 2.3 percent to close at $1254.4 per ounce and MCX gold prices rose by 2 percent to close at Rs.28756 per 10 gms. prices hit a more than two-week high supported by expectations of stronger demand from the physical market and as the dollar fell on fading prospects of an imminent increase in U.S. interest rates. Data from consultancy GFMS shows India's gold imports climbed to an estimated 75 tonnes in June from 22.7 tonnes a year earlier. For the first half of the year imports rose to 514 tonnes, up 161 percent year on year. 

WTI oil prices declined by 1.7 percent last week to close at $45.8 per barrel as nagging worries about abundant global crude supplies sank prices after an early rally boosted Brent above $50 per barrel for the first time since June 7. Markets are keenly watching ahead of Monday's meeting between key OPEC and non-OPEC producers in St. Petersburg, Russia. The market has been watching reports that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude producer, is considering an additional supply cut to reduce the global glut. 

LME base metals traded mostly lower last week as global risk appetite fell sharply after opposition of Trump’s Healthcare bill by two more republican senators. MCX base metals traded lower in line with international markets. 

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion -Opens on negative Note Gold -28310-28320 Silver -37760-37800

Energy - Opens on negative Note Crude Oil -3035-3030 Natural Gas -196-195 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -387.25-387.45 Nickel -611-611.50 Lead -141.80-142 Zinc - 176.10-175.50 Aluminium -122.40-122.45

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Precious metals are likely to open flat after ending higher yesterday as the dollar slumped further. The ECB policy pushed the euro to a 23- month high despite Draghi’s comments suggesting that policy accommodation is still needed. Markets were probably reacting to his hint on discussion of tapering in the autumn meeting. Despite the dovish talk, euro area financial conditions are the tightest since 2014 which is underpinning euro strength. Consequently, gold and silver have found support in recent days as the dollar fell to 13-month lows. Reports also suggest that US special counsel Robert Mueller is expanding his investigation of Donald Trump to examine his financial dealings. The probability of a December rate hike is down to 47%. From a trading perspective, gold and silver are likely to maintain an upward bias in the near term as long as the dollar stays weak and dips will provide a buying opportunity.

Base metals traded choppy within a range, with copper near its highest in five months on expectations of solid Chinese demand, but nickel fell as Chinese steel prices slipped from recent highs. ADB raised its 2017 and 2018 growth forecasts for China and other countries in the region. DXY fell to its lowest in nearly two years against the euro after ECB chief Mario Draghi said policymakers would discuss possible changes to its bond-buying scheme in the autumn. The global world refined copper market showed a 53,000 tons deficit in April, compared with a 18,000 tons deficit in March. For the first 4 months of the year, the market was in an 80,000 tons surplus compared with an 185,000 tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, as per the ICSG report. 

Crude oil prices are likely to open flat and have failed to move convincingly in either direction this week. On the downside, prices found support as EIA reported surprise decline in US inventories across the board. US crude oil stocks fell by 4.7 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply by 4.45 million barrels while distillate stocks fell by 2.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are now nearly 5% lower y/y. Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s domestic crude stocks declined in 16 of 19 months between Nov 2015 and May 2017 according to government data. Gains are however getting capped as US production continues to inch higher, touching 9.43 mbpd last week. New forecasts suggest that US shale output will touch a record 5.58 million bpd in August. Natural Gas prices fell as storage in the US rose by 28 bcf, below forecasts for a build of 32 bcf. From a trading perspective, crude oil is likely to be range bound ahead of rig count data while natural gas is likely to trade weak.

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL NEWS UPDATE

Precious metals are likely to open flat and trading is likely to be subdued ahead of key central bank decisions today. The ECB policy will be keenly awaited for clues about the fate of its asset purchases. Gold and silver have found support in recent days as the dollar fell to 10-month lows after the Trump administration failed to repeal Obamacare and that has cast doubts on his economic agenda. The dollar was already under pressure from last week following weaker inflation and retail sales data in June. The probability of a December rate hike is down to 43% from 50% a few days ago. On the ETF side, SPDR holdings continue to see outflows and gold holdings are down over 30 tonnes so far this month. From a trading perspective, gold and silver could see range bound trading ahead of the ECB meeting. A dovish policy could lead to dollar rebound and weigh on precious metals.

LME copper has been trading firm and near it’s highest since early March. Unionized workers at mines in Peru, started nationwide strike on Wednesday to protest the governments proposed labor reforms. Nickel is trading at 3 month high, with premiums having surged by 16% this week to reach their highest in two years at $200- $220/ton. Demand surged after China's import arbitrage turned positive this week. 

Crude oil prices are likely to find support as EIA reported surprise decline in US inventories across the board. US crude oil stocks fell by 4.7 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply by 4.45 million barrels while distillate stocks fell by 2.1 million barrels.   

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -28250-28240 Silver -37600-37620

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil -2975-2977 Natural Gas -198-198.30 

Base Metals - Opens on negative Note Copper -388-388.40 Nickel -621-622 Lead -144.20-144.60 Zinc - 178.60-178.80 Aluminium -122.70-122.80

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Precious metals are likely to open flat after staging a strong rally yesterday as the dollar weakened after another failure to push through the healthcare reform in the US. The dollar is trading near 10-month lows as the Trump administration failed to repeal Obamacare and that has cast doubts on his economic agenda. The dollar was already under pressure from last week following weaker inflation and retail sales data in June. The probability of a December rate hike is down to 43% from 50% a few days ago. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's top gold producer Anglo Asian Mining’s first-half output fell 31.4% year-on-year to 23,218 ounces while Silver output declined to 85,087 ounces from 90,782 ounces. On the ETF side, SPDR holdings continue to see outflows and gold holdings are down over 25 tonnes so far this month. From a trading perspective, the bias for gold and silver is likely to remain positive this week and the ECB meeting may likely provide further triggers for price. 

Crude oil prices are likely to open lower after a choppy session yesterday as API reported a surprise increase in US inventories last week. Data show that US oil stocks rose by 1.6 million barrels and that is likely to weigh on prices until we get confirmation from official EIA data later today. New forecasts suggest that US shale output will touch a record 5.58 million bpd in August. Libyan oil production has surpassed 1 million bpd while Ecuador is not complying with production cuts due to its high fiscal deficit. This is likely to keep prices capped. On the downside, a weaker dollar coupled with another disruption in Nigerian exports could provide support to prices. 

Commodity Opening Bell Bullion - 

Opens on positive Note Gold -28150-28170 Silver -37475-37480 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -2966-2970 Natural Gas -195-195.50

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -388.70-388.90 Nickel -619-619.30 Lead -146.70-146.50 Zinc - 181-181.10 Aluminium -122.30-122.45

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL NEWS 

Precious metals are trading higher on COMEX today. We expect prices to trade higher for the day as the dollar hovered near multi-month lows on fading prospects for further U.S. rate hikes this year.

Industrial metals are trading higher on International bourses today. We expect prices to trade higher for the day, extending gains in the wake of strong Chinese economic data that boosted the outlook for metals demand.

Crude oil is trading higher on NYMEX today. We expect prices to trade higher for the day, supported by strong consumption but weighed by ongoing high supplies from producer club OPEC and also the United States.

Commodity Opening Bell Bullion - 

Opens on positive Note Gold -28040-28050 Silver -37160-37200

 Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil -2995-3000 Natural Gas -192.80-193 

 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -385-385.50 Nickel -616-617 Lead -148.50-148.70 Zinc - 181-181.10 Aluminium -123.50-123.80

Opens on negative Note Gold -27800-27790 Silver -36420-36380 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -2966-2963 Natural Gas -191.60-191.30 

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -381.60.-381.50 Nickel -593-594 Lead -146.70-146.80 Zinc - 179.50-180 Aluminium -123.50-123.80

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTALS NEWS

Gold retreated from earlier gains on Thursday as the U.S. dollar turned higher and global stocks gained on upbeat data, even as investors wagered that policy tightening in the United States would be glacial at best. Denting gold's safe-haven appeal, the MSCI world index hit a record high for the fourth time in less than a month as investors took Yellen's remarks as a green light for risk-taking. China posted stronger-than-expected June trade figures, bolstering the U.S. dollar, which advanced against a currency basket. The greenback earlier hit its lowest since last October after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a less hawkish than expected tone in testimony before Congress on Wednesday.

Oil prices rose 1.3 percent on Thursday after much stronger demand in China overshadowed a downbeat report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that showed higher production by key OPEC exporters. Prices had responded only minimally to data Wednesday showing U.S. crude oil inventories dropped last week by the most in 10 months. Oil prices have dropped in recent weeks to levels not seen since the end of last year as investors lost faith in a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to reduce output, while U.S. shale oil production has risen sharply.

Opens on positive Note Gold -27940-27960 Silver -37015-37050 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -2950-2940 Natural Gas -194-194.30 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -384.-384.50 Nickel -595-596 Lead -149-149.20 Zinc - 182.50-183 Aluminium -121.50-121.80

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Precious metals are likely to open higher as the dollar weakened and yields fell after a set of relatively dovish comments from Janet Yellen during her semiannual testimony. Janet Yellen indicated that the Fed is closely watching inflation and added that rates may not need to be lifted a lot more to get back to a neutral stance. She signalled that the Fed’s plans to start unwinding the balance sheet were on target. Overall, her comments indicate that the Fed will not be aggressive in hiking rates from here on and getting inflation close to target is the next big priority for the Fed. Earlier, comments from a couple of Fed members also indicated that while balance sheet trimming might happen soon, another rate hike may take time. From a trading perspective, we are likely to see further gains in the precious metals complex in the near term and inflation data this week becomes extremely crucial for gold and silver’s direction.  

Base metals traded frim for yet another session, buoyed by weaker U.S. dollar which is trading at 2 week low. China imported 2.23 million tonnes of copper in first half of this year, down 18.4% compared to same period last year. Zinc prices climbed to their highest in more than three months on Wednesday as market worried about falling stocks in exchange warehouses, shortages and expectations of stronger demand from China.

Commodity Opening Bell Bullion - 

Opens on positive Note Gold -27900-27910 Silver -36980-37030 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil - 2950-2960 Natural Gas -196.60-196.30 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -384.-384.50 Nickel -595-596 Lead -149-149.20 Zinc - 182.50-183 Aluminium -122.40-122.50

COMMODITY  FUNDAMENTALS  NEWS

Precious metals are trading higher on COMEX today. We expect prices to trade higher for the day as market awaited testimony from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and central bank officials expressed caution about further interest rate hikes.

Industrial metals are trading higher on International bourses today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day, amid a weaker U.S. dollar and signs that global supply was leveling off after rising sharply in June.

Crude oil is trading higher on NYMEX today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day as the U.S. government cut its crude production outlook for next year and as fuel inventories plunged.

Commodity Opening Bell Bullion - 

Opens on negative Note Gold - 27720-27740 Silver - 36250-36280 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil - 2880-2878 Natural Gas -189-189.40 

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -378.80-379 Nickel -580-580.50 Lead -149-149.20 Zinc - 178.90-179 Aluminium -122.10-122.20

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

We expect gold prices to trade sideways on the back of short covering after drop in prices. 

We expect silver prices to trade positive on the back of short covering after drop in prices. 

Oil prices rose modestly on Monday, but increased drilling activity in the United States and uncertainty over Libyan and Nigerian production cuts clouded the future supply outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some nonOPEC members agreed in May to curtail production until March 2018, but the move has failed to eliminate a global glut of crude. Several key OPEC ministers will meet non-OPEC country Russia on July 24 in St Petersburg, Russia, to discuss oil markets.

Copper slipped to the lowest in two weeks on Monday as rising inventories indicated healthy supplies, outweighing worries about possible strikes at mines in Chile. Also pressuring the metals market was subdued inflation data in top market China as the economy loses momentum. China's producer price inflation was unchanged in June amid lingering oversupply issues in the steel sector and as signs of economic weakness weighed on the outlook for prices. 

Commodity Opening Bell Bullion - 

Opens on negative Note Gold - 27730-27725 Silver - 36180-36220

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil - 2875-2880 Natural Gas -186.80-187.10

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -382.70-383 Nickel -582-581 Lead -147.80-148 Zinc - 179.80-180.10 Aluminium -124.30-124.35.

COMMODITY FUNDAMENTAL NEWS

Precious metals prices fell to the lowest in nearly four months on Friday after stronger than expected United States jobs data increased the likelihood of another U.S. interest rate increase and the dollar rose. 

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood at 835.35 down 5.32 tonnes, from previous business day.

Industrial metals are trading mix on International bourses today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day, after a solid U.S. jobs report buoyed hopes that an economic recovery is taking root in the world's top economy, which spurred appetite for risk assets

Commodity Opening Bell Bullion -

 Opens on negative Note Gold - 28045-28040 Silver - 37270-37240 

 Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil - 2925-2918 Natural Gas -187.70-187.50 

 Base Metals - Opens on negative Note Copper -382-381.50 Nickel -288-286 Lead -147.40-147.50      Zinc - 180-179.80 Aluminium -125-125.20

MCX MARKET NEWS

 

Copper traded choppy as traders reacted to surge in LME stocks while threat of strike at two Chilean mines has prevented significant downside on stockpiling. While LME inventories are climbing, traders are shrugging this off and they continue to bet on copper extending its recent rally.

Nickel came under pressure after new environment minister lifted restriction on issuing environmental permits to projects, including mine exploration and development, reversing previous order by his controversial predecessor dismissed in May.  

Crude oil is expected to open lower and aupportive inventory data failed to lift prices. EIA data showed that oil inventories fell by 6.3 million barrels while gasoline stocks fell by 3.6 million. Gasoline demand inched up to 9.70 mbpd from 9.53 mbpd week ago. Crude oil production rose back as operators restarted after Tropical Storm Cindy but overall US production has been stuck around 9.3 mbpd for past five weeks.

 Opens on positive Note Gold - 28170-28175 Silver - 37550-37580 

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil - 2952-2955 Natural Gas -185-185.50 

Base Metals - Opens on negative Note Copper -382-381.70 Nickel -590-590.50 Lead -146.50-146.30 Zinc - 179-179.30 Aluminium -124.50-124.60

MCX Gold price has given the breakdown of its rising trend line support at 28390 levels on a daily chart. Moreover, COMEX Gold has given the breakdown of its horizontal trend line at $1238 on the hourly chart. On the other hand, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover on a daily chart. Furthermore, prices have been trading below its 50 DEMA on a daily time frame. Therefore, we expect the Gold price to move lower towards 27800 levels.