Crude falls as flooding from Harvey roils US oil industry

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on mixed Note Gold -29730-29.750 Silver -39700-39750 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -3010-3015 Natural Gas -195-196 

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -4440-439.50 Nickel -755-756 Lead -152.50-152 Zinc - 200.70-200.80 Aluminium -135.20-135.40.

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Precious Metals 

Precious metals are likely to open flat after a strong rebound yesterday as US inflation data missed expectations. The core PCE, a measure of inflation came in at 1.4% y/y, the lowest in two years. This wiped out the gains in the dollar index we saw after the data on Wednesday. The dollar was also hit by comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who suggested that a weaker currency is somewhat better for trade. Data earlier this week showed that US GDP was 3.0% in Q2 compared to 2.6% in the first estimate. 

Base Metals 

Base metals continue to trade firm for yet another session backed by better than expected US GDP and Chinese PMI numbers, and correction in DXY. China plans to conduct 15 rounds of inspections during its new campaign to curb smog during winter, the environment ministry said on Friday, as the country strives to meet politically important air quality targets. Aluminium climbed to a 13-month high on the back of fresh investment money coming into metals, betting on a stronger recovery in demand next year. 

Energy 

Crude oil is likely to open flat after huge bounce back yesterday post OPEC data. Estimates suggest that OPEC output fell by 170,000 bpd in August owing to fluctuating Libyan output. Gasoline prices saw bigger action with prices jumping 13% to highest in two years as impact of hurricane is creating crunch in product markets. The hurricane forced refineries across US Gulf Coast to shut down impacting at least 3.6 million bpd of refining capacity in Texas and Louisiana. US Energy Department will release 500,000 barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease supply crunch.

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -29460-29480 Silver -39550-39600 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -2950-2955 Natural Gas -189-189.50 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -434.50-435 Nickel -742-743 Lead -151.30-15-151.50 Zinc - 198.70-199 Aluminium -133-133.50

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Gold prices corrected sharply in the last two sessions after making 9 months high of 29937 in the previous session. Prices have retested and taken strong support around the same level after breaking out its short term declining trend line resistance. Prices are expected to rise from these levels towards immediate resistance placed around its recent high of 29937. On the lower side immediate supports are placed around 29450 and 29170 levels.

Crude Oil prices rebounded slightly in the last session after falling sharply in the previous few sessions. Prices have given a breakdown from its short term rising trend line support and are expected to fall further from these levels towards next strong support placed around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from low of 2732 till high of 3234, which is placed around 2924 level. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed around 3010 and 3060 levels.

Natural Gas prices have corrected slightly in the last session after prices took strong resistance around its short term declining trend line of the falling wedge chart pattern. Prices have given a failed breakout from its declining trend line resistance and were not been able to sustain above the same. Prices are expected to fall further from these levels towards immediate strong support placed around its recent swing low of 182.20. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed around 190 and 193.50 levels.

COMMODITY OPENING BELL  

Bullion - Opens on mixed Note Gold -29630-29640 Silver -39750-39800 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -2960-2970 Natural Gas -190.20-190.30 

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -434.50-435 Nickel -745-746 Lead -151.10-151.30 Zinc - 199.50-199.80 Aluminium -132.50-132.60

Commodity Marekt News

Precious Metals 

Precious metals are likely to open flattish today as the dollar index rebounded slightly from the lowest since January 2015. A muted response from Donald Trump to North Korea’s missile test led to some easing in geo-political tensions. Concerns however will continue to underpin broader market sentiment as North Korea fired a missile which flew over Japan, the 18th test this year. There are reports of tightening sanctions on North Korea.

Base Metals 

Base metals traded firm, but are treading water from its high as a dollar rebound slowed a rally in prices based on China's robust housing and manufacturing growth. LME aluminium stocks have climbed by around 40,000 tonnes since mid-month, as traders deliver metal rather than hold it given a blow-out in spreads. The premium to roll aluminium for a day, seen in spreads, surged to $10 for four of the past five sessions

Energy 

Crude oil is likely to remain weak as markets grapple with the impact of Hurricane Harvey. A broader hit to risk sentiment also contributed to the weakness in oil prices. We have seen a decline in prices this week as the hurricane in the US led to more refinery outages compared to production outages. The hurricane forced refineries across the US Gulf Coast to shut down impacting at least 3.6 million bpd of refining capacity in Texas and Louisiana.

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on positive Note Gold -29700-29720 Silver -39830-39880 

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil -2995-3000 Natural Gas -190-190.30 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -432.50-433 Nickel -748-749 Lead -147.60-147.90 Zinc - 198.10-198.50 Aluminium -131.90-132

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Gold prices rose strongly in the last session after prices recovered in the previous week from a sharp correction. Prices have broken out its short term declining trend line resistance in the last session. Prices are expected to rise further from these levels towards next strong resistances placed around its previous multiple highs at 29585 and 29785 levels. On the lower side strong supports are placed around 29350 and 29170 levels.

Crude Oil prices have fallen shaprly in the last session after prices gave a breakdown from its short term rising trend line support. Prices have also broken below its previous swing low of 2981 and are expected to fall further from these levels towards next strong supports placed around 2930 and 2830 levels. On the higher side immediate resistances are placed around 3025 and 3075 levels. Selling on rise is recommended for the short term trading opportunities. 

 

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Precious Metals 

Precious metals are likely to open flat after a slight rebound yesterday as comments from Donald Trump hit US markets and the dollar. Trump is willing to see a government shutdown if the Mexico border wall is not funded. This has raised concerns about his fiscal plans. US debt ceiling is likely to be hit in early October and failure to raise it will lead to a government shutdown. Overall trading however is likely to be range bound ahead of key events this week.

Base Metals 

Base metals are likely to open flat as markets await further triggers. Preliminary manufacturing PMI’s from across the globe were mixed with European PMI coming in better than expected at 57.4 while US PMI was lower than forecast at 52.5. Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in August. Aluminum prices continue to find support owing to prospects of capacity shutdowns in China.

Energy 

Crude oil is likely to flat after a bounce yesterday as the EIA data showed a decline in US crude and gasoline inventories last week. Crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels while gasoline stocks were down by 1.2 million barrels. US inventories have declined swiftly in the past four months and are now at the lowest since January 2016. Libya’s Sharara oilfield has been shut again and has seen repeated disruptions since last week.

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -29090-29105 Silver -38940-38925 

Energy - Opens on negative Note Crude Oil -3073-3070 Natural Gas -189-188.70 

Base Metals - Opens on negative Note Copper -421-420.80 Nickel -723-725 Lead -153.60-153.70 Zinc - 199.50-199.70 Aluminium -131.70-132

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS 

Copper retreated from a three-year high on Tuesday, and other base metals also fell or trimmed gains, as speculators and funds locked in some profits after a steep rally. Earlier in the session, metals were on the rise against a backdrop of strong results for mining firms and talk of shortages in some metals, but analysts said there was nothing new to justify the rich prices. Nickel and zinc, both mainly used in steel production, had benefited as Asian ferrous prices extended gains, with Chinese iron ore futures surging nearly 5 percent to five-month highs.

We expect base metal prices likely to trade positive on the back of expectation of strong demand from China. 

Oil inched up on Tuesday, lifted by expectations of another crude stockpile drawdown in the United States but price gains were limited amid the reopening of Libya's largest oil field. Prices, however, pared gains in post settlement trade and Brent crude turned negative as the market was disappointed by industry data from the American Petroleum Institute showing a crude stockpile decline largely in line with expectations and a surprise build in gasoline inventories.  

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, pressured by the stronger U.S. dollar ahead of an annual meeting of central bankers this week, while palladium fell from its highest level since February 2001.

We expect silver prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up move

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS 

Precious metals prices rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over North Korea fueled safe-haven demand, while doubts about U.S. President Donald Trump's ability to enact pro-business policies pushed U.S. bond yields and the dollar lower.

Precious metals are trading lower on COMEX today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day, with market eying developments on the geopolitical front and remaining cautious ahead of an annual central banking meeting in Jackson Hole later this week.

Industrial metals are trading range bound on International bourses today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day, with the resumption of a rally in iron ore prices offered support to the sector.

Crude oil is trading higher on NYMEX today. We expect prices to trade higher for the day, lifted by indications that supply is gradually tightening, especially in the United States.

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -29120-29100 Silver -38850-38880 

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil -3105-3110 Natural Gas -186.30-186.50 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -417-417.25 Nickel -710-715 Lead -151.75-151.85 Zinc - 202-203 Aluminium -132.50-133

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Precious metals are trading lower on COMEX today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day, as the dollar firmed, with the precious metal trading below an intra-day nine-month high hit on Friday when political and security concerns jangled investors' nerves and stoked demand.

Industrial metals are trading higher on International bourses today. We expect prices to trade higher for the day as investors ploughed into metals used by China's steel sector, seeing robust demand even as capacity is constrained by Beijing's drive to reform bloated industries.

Crude oil is trading mix on NYMEX today. We expect prices to trade range bound for the day, largely holding on to Friday's big gains even though rising U.S. output weighed on hopes the market will tighten after a 13 percent fall in U.S. crude inventories since March. 

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on mixed Note Gold -29180-29200 Silver -38970-39000 

Energy - Opens on negative Note Crude Oil -3015-3020 Natural Gas -187.90-188.10 

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -414.70-414.90 Nickel -686.70-687 Lead -153.60-153.90 Zinc - 197.50-198 Aluminium -132-132.10

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Gold rose for a second day on Thursday after Federal Reserve officials hinted that U.S. interest rates could rise more slowly than expected, while palladium was lifted to a fresh 16-year high by strong industrial metals markets.

We expect gold prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up move.

Silver fell 0.5 percent to $17 an ounce.

We expect silver prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up move.

Oil prices rose on Thursday as renewed attention was put on U.S. oil stockpile declines after an industry report suggested oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub were declining. Inventories at Cushing, the delivery hub for U.S. crude futures, declined more than a million barrels in the week to Aug. 15, traders said citing estimates from energy industry information provider Genscape. 

We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways on the back of short covering after drop in prices. 

We expect Natural gas prices to trade negative on the back of profit booking after sharp up-move in prices.  

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on positive Note Gold -29100-29130 Silver -39200-39250 

Energy - Opens on negative Note Crude Oil -3010-3005 Natural Gas -185.80-185.70 

Base Metals - Opens on positive Note Copper -419.50-420.20 Nickel -691-692 Lead -160.50-160.80 Zinc - 200.50-200.70 Aluminium -134.10-134.20

STOCK MARKET NEWS

Bullion counter may open on positive path tracking strong international markets on safe haven demand as US initial jobless claim data to give further direction to the prices. Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee can give further direction to the prices. Gold can move in range of 28800-29500 while silver can move in range of 38700-39700 in near term. Gold prices finished with a gain on Wednesday as news that two White House business advisory groups have disbanded, fueling haven demand and prompting a late-session turn higher for the yellow metal. Most senior Federal Reserve officials wanted to wait until an “upcoming” meeting to unveil a long-awaited selloff of the central bank’s $4.5 trillion in bondholdings, hinting at an announcement in September, according to minutes of the Fed’s meeting in July. The government has banned exports of gold jewellery, medallions and other articles with purity above 22 carats in a bid to check round tripping of the precious metal.

Base metals complex may open in green however profit booking at higher levels can be seen. Today US industrial production data can give further direction to the prices. Copper may move in the range of 416-425. Aluminum can move in the range of 132-135 in MCX. Nickel can move in range of 675-695. Lead can hover in the range of 158-162. Zinc may move in range of 195-203. A broad-based rally in metals extended on Thursday to new multi-year peaks for London aluminium, copper and zinc, on expectations that China's reform of its metals industry will curb supply against a background of robust demand. LME aluminium hit its highest since late 2014, while zinc hit a new peak since 2007 at $3,145 a tonne. Both LME zinc and LME lead held the prior day's 5 pct gains and all three are up between 21-25 percent this year. Chinese traders are diverting money from steel to zinc on the Shanghai Futures Exchange after a hike in trading fees on Monday cut the appeal of steel itself even as booming construction activity fuels demand for steel-making essentials like zinc.

Crude oil can open in green as it can move in range of 2980-3050. Oil prices edged up early on Thursday, clawing back some ground after losses in the previous session. Traders said the market was range-bound as falling crude inventories provided price support while high output was capping gains. Data published late on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that commercial U.S. crude oil stocks have fallen by almost 13 percent from their peaks in March to 466.5 million barrels, well below this time last year. Some traders said that the soaring U.S. output is eroding efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which, together with non-OPEC producers like Russia, has pledged to restrict output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January this year and March 2018 to tighten the market and prop up prices. Natural gas may move in range of 185-189 as weekly inventory data to give further direction to the prices.

COMMODITY OPENING BELL

Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -28950-28970 Silver -38450-38500 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -3075-3085 Natural Gas -188-187.50 

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -410.50-409.50 Nickel -666-667 Lead -151-152.50 Zinc - 190-191 Aluminium -131-132

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Precious Metals 

Precious metals are likely to open flat after a selloff yesterday as geo-political tensions eased and as the US dollar rebounded after positive US data. The rhetoric between US and North Korea which had kept markets on the edge has toned down in the past couple of days and there are clear attempts to deescalate. US economic data also provided a positive surprise as retail sales jumped 0.6% in July, the most in seven months and the June reading was also revised higher to 0.3%. Inflation however remains a concern which has kept rate hike odds lower. The headline CPI grew by 1.7% y/y in July, less than expectations of 1.8% while core CPI was unchanged at 1.7%. The focus will be on how US data and geopolitical factors pan out in the coming days. The FOMC minutes will provide more cues today. If global sentiment improves, there is a likelihood of further profit-taking in precious metals. 

Base Metals 

Base metals are likely to open higher with zinc rallying to its highest in a decade, boosted by rally in steel prices. Aluminium is extending gains due to capacity cuts in China to clean up its skies ahead of the winter heating season. Nickel ore output in Philippines fell 24% in first half of year as several mines stopped operations due to government sanctions and bad weather. Data from ING showed that increased production from Indonesia is impacting nickel’s supply chain which is narrowing market’s deficit.

Energy 

Crude oil is likely to open flat after selloff in last couple of sessions on worries about stubbornly high supplies. EIA data indicates that US shale production is likely to rise by 117,000 bpd to 6.15 million bpd in Sep, its ninth consecutive monthly rise. 

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on mixed Note Gold -29120-29130 Silver -39200-39230 

Energy - Opens on positive Note Crude Oil -3126-3127 Natural Gas -19250-192.90 

Base Metals - Opens on mixed Note Copper -411-412 Nickel -679-680 Lead -149-149.30 Zinc - 185.75-185.90 Aluminium -129.35-129.60

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

The Gold prices climbed to two-month highs on Friday, rising for the fourth straight day as investors sought refuge amid escalating tensions between North Korea and the United States, while bullion also received support from weak U.S. inflation data.

We expect gold prices to trade positive on the back of safe haven buying. 

We expect gold prices to trade positive on the back of safe haven buying. 

We expect silver prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up move. 

CRUDE Oil prices rose slightly on Friday in volatile trading as the market weighed lower U.S. crude stocks, Nigerian instability and strong global demand growth against a persistently slow re balancing. 

We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways on the back of short covering after drop in prices. 

We expect Natural gas prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up-move in prices. 

Nickel and other base metals slumped on Friday as investors shunned risky assets amid tensions on the Korean peninsula and secured profits after a recent rally. U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new threat to North Korea, saying American weapons were "locked and loaded" as Pyongyang accused him of driving the Korean Peninsula to the brink of nuclear war. LME metals were also pressured after Chinese steel and iron ore futures slid as the Shanghai Futures Exchange urged investors to trade "rationally" and keep the market stable following a speculative rally. 

Gold hovers near two-month highs on North Korea tensions

Commodity Opening Bell 

Bullion - Opens on positive Note Gold -29200-29210 Silver -39200-39230 

Energy - Opens on mixed Note Crude Oil -3100-3110 Natural Gas -192-191.80 

Base Metals - Opens on negative Note Copper -480.70-409 Nickel -688-690 Lead -150-150.40 Zinc - 186.50-187 Aluminium -129.10-129.20

COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

Precious Metals

Precious metals are likely to open higher and a weaker INR is likely to push domestic prices further up as geo-political factors dented sentiment in global markets. The saber-rattling between US and North Korea has kept markets on the edge this week and we have seen volatility rise across the board. The CBOE VIX jumped 44% and the S&P 500 saw the biggest decline since May. While a full-fledged conflict is unlikely, risk premium has built up in global assets and the short-term market action is going to be very choppy.

Base Metals 

Base metals took a breather yesterday after the recent rally set over the last 1 week. Some profit taking emerged in wider markets as investors fretted about the simmering tensions between the United States and North Korea. China aluminium extended gains to strike its highest since 2012, with investors flooding into the market on prospects that capacity closures in China would tighten supply. Chinese steel futures rose to trade near a 4-1/2-year high, supporting prices of key input materials zinc and nickel, as investors remained bullish ahead of production cuts in the China. Given the geopolitical tension, bounce in dollar index and some profit taking in equities globally, base metals could be under pressure for the short term.

Energy 

Crude oil is likely to open lower after yet another choppy session yesterday where prices corrected sharply after hitting two month highs. The general risk off sentiment in markets coupled with comments from Russia led to the sharp dive. Russia’s Gazprom indicated that it could lift production from mature fields once the OPEC deal expires. The OPEC monthly report was however supportive as it raised demand forecast by 0.1 mbpd to 1.4 mbpd for 2017. The OPEC also revised Non-OPEC supply growth lower by 0.28 mbpd to 57.77 mbpd this year. 

Precious metals are likely to open flat after a strong set of gains yesterday as geo-political factors dented sentiment in global markets. Geopolitical tension has ramped up following the escalation in war-like rhetoric between US and North Korea. While a fullfledged conflict is unlikely, some risk premium has built up in global assets. On the upside, better US labor market data will limit gains. US worker productivity rose more than expected in the second quarter, rising 0.9% but wage growth remained lower at 0.6%.

Base metals continue their bull run with LME copper and aluminium rising to 2-1/2 year highs on expectations of output cuts in across many commodities in China during winter. China's Shandong province has ordered 3.21 million tonnes of aluminium smelting capacity to be shut, more than previously expected, as Beijing intensifies efforts to curb pollution in its bloated heavy industries. An earthquake in China's Sichuan province has increased risk of disruption to some mine supply from region; on other hand, metals demand prospects have improved due to reconstruction activity. China's top aluminium foil producers are preparing legal defence challenging preliminary U.S. ruling that would impose hefty penalties on imports from China. 

Crude oil is likely to open flat after closing higher yesterday as US inventory data supported prices. EIA data showed that US oil inventories declined by 6.5 million barrels and US oil production fell slightly last week. Oil inventories are now down over 58 million barrels from their peak in March. Gasoline demand remained near record highs but stocks unexpectedly rose by 3.4 million barrels. Further cuts in exports by Saudi in September coupled with hope of better compliance from Iraq has also kept prices supported on the downside

Precious metals are likely to open higher as geopolitical factors came back into focus after comments from North Korea and Donald Trump. Geopolitical tension has ramped up following the United Nations decision to impose sanctions against North Korea this week. The escalation in war-like rhetoric is likely to keep broader risk appetite lower and help safe haven assets rally. On the upside, better US labor market data will limit gains. US job openings increased by 461k to 6.2 million, the highest level on record. Earlier, data showed that employers added 209k jobs last month and June's employment gain was revised up to 231k. The unemployment rate touched a 16- year low of 4.3% while wage growth was better than expected at 2.5% y/y.

Base Metals 

Base metals continue to rally with minor metals having the most action along with nickel, which is well supported by rallying Chinese steel prices. A rally in Chinese steel and iron ore prices brightened the outlook for growth and industrial demand in China. Shanghai aluminium and copper roared to the highest in around 5 ears as investors flooded into metals on expectations of capacity cuts in coal and aluminium in China.

Energy 

Crude oil prices are likely to open flat and remain choppy on conflicting drivers. Further cuts in exports by Saudi in September coupled with hope of better compliance from Iraq has kept prices supported on the downside. Data earlier today also showed that US oil inventories declined by 7.8 million barrels last week. On the upside, prices faced resistance as EIA forecasts US crude oil production to average 9.9 million bpd in 2018, which would be the highest annual average production on record.

Precious metals are likely to open flat and have been finding support at lower levels as the dollar has failed to move higher despite better employment data that came out last week. Data showed that employers added 209k jobs last month and June's employment gain was revised up to 231k. The unemployment rate touched a 16-year low of 4.3% while wage growth was better than expected at 2.5% y/y. Other economic data last week was however disappointing as the ISM services PMI fell to 53, the lowest since August 2016. Two Federal Reserve officials that spoke yesterday acknowledged that low US inflation was a problem. The core PCE price index has been running at 1.5% this year. December rate hike odds are back near 42% after a small increase post the jobs data. The focus will be on US inflation data this week which could give direction to the dollar. In the meanwhile, gold and silver prices could remain confined in a small range before we get more triggers.

Base Metals 

Base metals prices rallied, with some metals rallying to multi year highs. Copper prices hit 2 year peaks on Monday as soaring steel and iron ore prices in China brightened the outlook for growth and industrial demand in the China. Chinese rebar steel futures surged as much as 7% to their highest in more than four years on expectations of reduced supply in the winter due to Beijing-imposed capacity curbs. China had a $25.2 billion trade surplus with the United States in July, down slightly from $25.4 billion in June, which was the highest since October 2015.

Energy 

Crude oil prices are likely to open flat after yet another choppy session and prices rebounded sharply from lows once again yesterday. Markets will await comments from the ongoing OPEC review meeting in Abu Dhabi. Libya's Sharara oil field, which produces 270,000 bpd, was facing a gradual shutdown yesterday but is returning to normal. Prices found support last week as oil rigs in the US fell for the second time in three weeks. Iraq's oil exports fell to 3.23 million bpd in July from 3.27 million bpd in June. On the upside, prices faced resistance as crude oil exports by the OPEC rose to a record high in July, touching 26.11 mbpd due to a jump in Nigerian exports.