TODAY COMMODITY MARKET OVERVIEW AND LEVELS UPDATE 28 JULY 2017.


Bullion - Opens on negative Note Gold -28420-28470 Silver -38300-38170 

Energy - Opens on negative Note Crude Oil -3150-3155 Natural Gas -191-191.20 

Base Metals - Opens on negative Note Copper -407-406 Nickel -645-646 Lead -146-147 Zinc - 179-178.70 Aluminium -122.90-123

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Precious metals are likely to open lower as the dollar rebounded slightly after the recent selloff. US core durable goods orders rose by 6.5% in June, reflecting a sharp jump in orders for transportation equipment. Initial jobless claims however rose by more than expected to 244,000 missing forecasts of a 7,000 decline. Gold prices jumped this week after the Fed kept rates unchanged and maintained that the balance sheet unwinding may start relatively soon. Inflation concerns were however highlighted more prominently compared to the June statement and the Fed expects inflation to remain somewhat below 2% in near term. This implies that a rate hike may not happen until December. Consequently, US rate hike expectations for December slipped to 46%. Meanwhile, ETF holdings of gold continue to decline with SPDR holdings down 0.45% to 791.88 tonnes. Overall, bias remains positive for Gold and silver but range bound trade is expected ahead of US GDP.

Base metals consolidated in a range after volatility seen during the week. Copper has been sideways with little movement in currency markets. Glencore cut its 2017 output targets after changes in what it extracts at some of its mines, rainfall and maintenance hit production in the first half of the year. China's Ministry of Commerce called for a global approach to tackling problems in the aluminium market as it noted the findings of a probe by the United States into the sector.

Crude oil prices are likely to extend gains and the trend remains positive this week after the EIA reported sharp drawdown in US inventories. Natural gas rose as inventories rose less than expected by 17 bcf. Earlier, data showed that US oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels while gasoline and distillate stocks also drew.   

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